March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 03:06 PM GMT วัน มีนาคม 12, 2012

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The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:

262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999


Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.


Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.

The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:

1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.

2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.

3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.


Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.


Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.

Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:

"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.

The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.

Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.

We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."

An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

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Check out our spiffy new website...the result of much hard work by our friend FloodmanLink
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
457 AussieStorm "Drought Police. . . not just a hosepipe ban, but 1,000pound fines for ELEVEN offences on water use. Water bosses in the South and East issue checklist of restrictions for 20m people."

Most tellingly inregard to how seriously the government takes the issue:
"Water company infrastructure across England and Wales leaked 3.4billion litres a day in 2010/11: a third of the UK's usage."
Meanwhile it's spending a minimum of 17billion pounds (~$27billion) on staging the Olympics...which the Brits did not want by a nearly 2to1 margin.
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morning all.

new TC and another TC formation alert. 0.o
Member Since: สิงหาคม 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting AussieStorm:
Drought Police. . . not just a hosepipe ban, but £1,000 fines for ELEVEN offences on water use. Water bosses in the South and East issue checklist of restrictions for 20m people.

Thanks for the info Aussie,
So as the sun is about to rise over the North Pole, I wonder what this summer will bring.
In My village in southern Spain I have now personally confirmed by asking locals that it has only rained on 3 days since October. We just went from summer to summer with a few cold days in between. Nothing is growing much except what can survive on dew.
Today's high of 27/c predicted,(80/F), a lot of forest/scrub fires raging,destroying thousands of acres,mainly in the mountains.
Food prices are very high and set to rise more, a lot of cereal crops will fail as it doesn't rain normally after April and its mainly too hot then to grow anything without irrigation.
There are about 50 million people living in the Iberian peninsular.
We have plenty of water in dams but a lot of rivers are allready dry, nothing much of any use is probably going to fall out of the sky this year. Its going to be hell from now on when it get to 100/f every day!
Member Since: มกราคม 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
468. MahFL
Quoting drought:
I am middle aged. I am 43.




At what number would the pressure in millibars and the wind in knots match? Something to stay away from for sure!


My wife would disagree that 43 is middle aged. She thinks middle aged is 60 +.
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Dr. Masters I have a question/suggestion.... I was using your app and I realized that i couldn't comment on your blog, I was wondering if you already can? If you cannot, is there anyway to put them on there, because I would be able to comment on them a lot more often if it was on the app.
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Good morning all! What a great wake-up today; I rolled out of bed, looked at the thermometer and it said 61 degrees. I slapped it 3 times to see if it was working, but it was. Going to be quite a warm week for my area I can tell!

Area forecast discussion for the short term:

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS HIPRES RDG STRENGTHENS OVR AREA WED/THU...BRINGING MUCH
ABV NRML TEMPS. MAXIMA ABV 80F ARE XPCD WED ACRS CENTRAL VA
FOOTHILLS AND BY THU...80F TEMPS CUD BE REACHED ACRS MUCH OF CWA.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS THU ARE IN LOW 80S AT CLIMATE SITES...AND THESE
MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
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465. MahFL
Quoting KoritheMan:
*sigh*

It's always so annoying when a severe thunderstorm is confined to the portion of the county away from you. Upper air soundings indicate that conditions are favorable for damaging winds too, and the NWS is warning for potential 50 kt winds with this. Dammit.


That's been happening to me for like 8 years lol.
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464. MahFL
Quoting Skyepony:
Bastardi was on Fox News yesterday..



BASTARDI: CO2 cannot cause global warming. I’ll tell you why. It doesn’t mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot — it literally cannot cause global warming.

Asked about Bastardi’s statements, Kerry Emanuel of MIT said: “Utter rubbish. Sorry to be so direct, but that is just the case.” NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt added: “Bastardi is attempting to throw out 150 years of physics.” “He seems very confused,” said physicist Richard Muller.

Bastardi....


Oh geeze, sounds like he's off his meds, poor thing.
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Quoting MahFL:


And how long untill a picture of someone cleaning the Prime Minsiters car with a hosepipe....?

oh I'm sure it's cleaned every time he goes out. even if it's 5 times a day.
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462. MahFL
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah and 20Million people affected.


And how long untill a picture of someone cleaning the Prime Minsiters car with a hosepipe....?
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Engineering the Human Body to Combat Climate Change:
From drugs to help you avoid eating meat to genetically engineered cat-like eyes to reduce the need for lighting...
Some modifications are simple and noninvasive. eg Many people wish to give up meat for ecological reasons, but lack the willpower to do so. Such individuals could take a pill that would trigger mild nausea upon the ingestion of meat, which would then lead to a lasting aversion to meat-eating.
Other techniques are bound to be more controversial: eg parents could make use of genetic engineering or hormone therapy in order to birth smaller, less resource-intensive children.
The folks who wrote the paper missed the point nearly entirely, eg:
The energy used by the poorest humans is about that of any wild/feral mammal of equivalent weight;
Energy usage by an average American is equivalent to that used by a 180tonne(200ton) blue whale, the largest animal known to have ever existed.
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Quoting MahFL:


I wonder how many people were actually fined 1000 and actually paid, or was the threat just enough ?

Yeah and 20Million people affected.
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459. MahFL
Quoting AussieStorm:
Drought Police. . . not just a hosepipe ban, but 1,000 fines for ELEVEN offences on water use. Water bosses in the South and East issue checklist of restrictions for 20m people.


I wonder how many people were actually fined 1000 and actually paid, or was the threat just enough ?
Also the fine is UPTO 1000 not 1000 for the first offence.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The Replicans should just let Obama win. Trust me, hardly nothing will get done in Congress during the next four years. In 2016, you will have Bush and Christie battling it out, and if Hillary does not run, an easy win for the Pubs.


The US has become a plutocracy ruled by oligarchs! However there is a strong undercurrent of fascism much like Germany in the 1920s which could easily get out of hand ! The refusal of both political parties to address Peak Oil and AGW is going to have dire ramifications for what's left of our fragile democracy! Palin and Santorum are manifestations of the anger, frustrations and unease about our futures IMO.
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456. MahFL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Fox News viewers less informed than those who don%u2019t watch news at all: study


The only good show on Fox News is Shepard Smith, he usually tells it how it is.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Tropical Cyclone Lua has formed, forecast to peak just under hurricane strength. It looks pretty good right now...


Look at the NE corner of your image, that's another tropical low. It's forecast to become a cat 1 cyclone sometime Wednesday.
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Good morning. Tropical Cyclone Lua has formed, forecast to peak just under hurricane strength. It looks pretty good right now...

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Quoting Neapolitan:
It's going to be a very warm week and weekend across most of the continuous US, but the most drastic anomalies are forecast to be in the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region, as seen in the following map from HAMweather. All of Wisconsin, and nearly all of Minnesota and Iowa are predicted to see lows 30 degrees above normal on Sunday, with a few isolated areas 40 degrees above normal.

Warm


early spring motorcycle weather, thanks!
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Well seeing how folks seem to like an occasional excursion into politics, I came across this bizzare story... I forget now just what I was looking for and you know how link leads to link (.... well wait, I do remember... I was reading a thread that had comments about the recent Afghan murders and this was mentioned). I looked around a little and there are others related to it with more facts. I should say that I am not a political type and am not at all a fan of any of the major parties.

That said, this story is not for the feint of heart.

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-97022
Member Since: พฤษภาคม 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
It's going to be a very warm week and weekend across most of the continuous US, but the most drastic anomalies are forecast to be in the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region, as seen in the following map from HAMweather. All of Wisconsin, and nearly all of Minnesota and Iowa are predicted to see lows 30 degrees above normal on Sunday, with a few isolated areas 40 degrees above normal.

Warm
Member Since: พฤศจิกายน 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13609
Portlight gets a new website!

In the overnight hours a new website was posted for Portlight Strategies INC. The site can be found at www.portlight.org. Come by and see us!

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449. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL LOW 17U
4:49 PM CST March 13 2012
=======================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 12.5S 128.0E or 315 km west of Darwin and 250 km northwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The tropical low has slowed and appears to be turning southeast towards the Top End coast. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Wednesday morning and is likely to cross the west coast of the Top End later on Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including the Tiwi Islands, early Wednesday morning. Winds may increase further with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour in coastal areas between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including Darwin and the rural area, during Wednesday afternoon and evening. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend further inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River later on Wednesday or early Thursday. GALES may also develop between Port Keats and Kalumburu in Western Australia if the developing cyclone takes a more southerly track.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including the Tiwi Islands during Wednesday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District during Wednesday.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to the NT Border, including the Tiwi Islands, Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, and inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River.

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 12.9S 128.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 13.7S 129.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.3S 131.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 16.9S 133.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================

The tropical low has been located using surface observations and a scatterometer pass, in the Timor Sea, west of Darwin. A mid-level center of rotation is evident from satellite animations about 90nm to the WSW of the low level circulation center, indicating that the circulation is tilted by vertical wind shear. Convective structure has improved with a comma-shaped cloud pattern and peripheral banding. A band of 25kt winds is evident to the north of the low's center in the 00:25UTC ASCAT pass.

Dvorak analysis yields DT=2.0 based on a shear pattern, with MET=2.5. FT was held to 2.0 due to the strongly sheared structure. The development rate has been slow but the low is moving under the upper ridge axis, decreasing the deep layer shear. A standard development is forecast in a favorable environment with a divergent upper pattern and a low-level monsoonal wind surge expected to interact with the low tonight. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating an acceleration towards the southeast, reaching the southwest Top End coast later on Wednesday.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
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And in case you cannot understand the Latin, there's always help.





Member Since: สิงหาคม 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
The physical map shows the shape of that inkwell, a little clearer.



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446. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
3:00 PM WST March 13 2012
===========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (993 hPa) located at 18.5S 115.0E or 315 km northwest of Karratha and 430 km west northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Gale Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in the northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 18.0S 114.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.2S 114.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.2S 114.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.9S 117.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================

Tropical Cyclone Lua has formed off the Pilbara coast. The system intensified overnight with very deep convection persisting near the low level center during the day. Curvature has improved in an environment of low vertical wind shear.

Dvorak DT has hovered around 2.5 to 3.0 during the morning with a CI of 3.0 supported by MET. Recent ASCAT imagery showed marginal gales in the SE quadrant and hence max winds have been set at 35 knots [10 min].

Movement is very slight with the steering balanced between an upper ridge to the southwest and strengthening monsoonal northwesterlies to the north. A slow motion to the north is forecast through 48 hours then a southeasterly track is forecast for the following days towards the east Pilbara coast as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is general agreement across model guidance for this scenario.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, although sea surface temperatures may cool owing to upwelling with the slow motion. Numerical weather prediction models indicate a broad system which would indicate rapid intensification is less likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north of the center by Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
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The Portlight website will be down for maintenance for the next hour; when maintenance is completed the new website will be in place. Come check us out!
Member Since: สิงหาคม 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
444. emguy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, I went back and got radar data for the Joplin tornado (for like the 5 billionth time). It just amazes me how the atmosphere was able to produce an EF5 tornado on May 22, a day that wasn't really conducive for strong, long-lived tornadoes. I guess it goes to show you that it doesn't take a fully primed environment to produce a monster.



Left: Base Reflectivity
Right: Base Velocity


The Joplin Tornado was an aweful monster...The path of the tornado was 22.1 miles. Sadly, it did aweful things in no time at all. It's really wierd, severe tornadoes can take a right hand turn...The Joplin Tornado did not do this while it was an EF5 (Max path of EF5 damage is 6 miles). However, it took a sudden right hand turn once it dramatically weakened after passing through town, then stayed on that track.

This is a friendly note, but on the previous blog I tried to post some informative and helpful information regarding Hurricane Charley. This was in response to your comment that Charley was a home grown storm. You tried to refute my comments but respectfully, you are totally incorrect. First, a home grown hurricane is most notably based on weather features coming off of the US such as fronts, or weather features coming off Central and South America such as the Monsoon Trough. It's a little hard to home grow something if it does not come from home otherwise and Hurricane Charley was a legitimate Cape Verde Storm of origin, which developed from a sharp CV Wave, which came directly off of Africa.

Per National Hurricane Center Post Storm Analysis for Hurricane Charley...

"A tropical wave emerged from western Africa on 4 August. Radiosonde data from Dakar showed that this wave was accompanied by an easterly jet streak of around 55 kt near the 650 mb level. The wave also produced surface pressure falls on the order of 5 mb over 24 h near the west coast of Africa. On satellite images this system was not particularly impressive just after crossing the coast, since it had only a small area of associated deep convection. As the wave progressed rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic, the cloud pattern gradually became better organized, with cyclonic turning becoming more evident in the low clouds. The first center position estimates were given by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) in the vicinity of 9-10ºN, 47ºW at 2345 UTC 7 August, although at that time the system was still too weak to classify by the Dvorak technique. The first Dvorak T-numbers were assigned 24 h later, when the system was centered near 11ºN, 55ºW. Curved banding of the deep convection became better defined over the ensuing 12 h, and this, along with surface observations from the southern Windward Islands, indicated that a tropical depression had formed by 1200 UTC 9 August, centered about 100 n mi south-southeast of Barbados. Figure 1 depicts the “best track” of the tropical cyclone’s path. The wind and pressure histories are shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. Table 1 is a listing of the best track positions and intensities."
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Which will develop 1st. TL1 looks best.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nea, you would know. Did gas prices break $4.00 during President Bush's administration?


Peaked at $4.16 for the national average in 2008. Shortly afterwards, nearly all of the world's economies collapsed.

Shortly after the rapid rise in gasoline prices, we saw the housing market crash. Some qualified for loans they never should have gotten. Some bought more house than they could realistically afford, hoping the market would continue to rise and they could refinance later. Some bought into the variable rate mortgages, that use to be illegal. Some used their home equity is if it was an ATM. All in all, most were still getting by, until gasoline prices nearly doubled within a few short months. Too many, as we saw, could not afford the house they bought and the higher gas prices too. When the bottom fell out and home prices fell like a rock, many others became "under water" on their home values. This created further defaults and the story still continues today, although beginning to slow or reverse in some regions.

A friend of mine was a "head hunter" for the Real Estate industry. When the market collapsed he thought it would be for 12 to 18 months. I told him then that we are looking at 3 to 5 years. I may have under estimated the time. Most assuredly if the gasoline prices get so high again. While most have paid down debt, they have also lost the ability to use their home equity like it was an ATM. The pain will be as nearly severe as before, by my best guess.

I will get links for these time lines and how close they followed each other.
Member Since: สิงหาคม 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
441. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL LOW 17U
1:55 PM CST March 13 2012
=======================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 12.3S 128.0E or 315 km west of Darwin and 265 km northwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

The tropical low has slowed and appears to be turning southeast towards the Top End coast. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Wednesday morning and is likely to cross the west coast of the Top End later on Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including the Tiwi Islands, early Wednesday morning. Winds may increase further with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour in coastal areas between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including Darwin and the rural area, during Wednesday afternoon and evening. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend further inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River later on Wednesday or early Thursday. GALES may also develop between Port Keats and Kalumburu in Western Australia if the developing cyclone takes a more southerly track.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including the Tiwi Islands during Wednesday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District during Wednesday.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to the NT Border, including the Tiwi Islands, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and Rural Area that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and NT Border should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, and inland to include Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River .

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Hope you didn't get your best sheet dirty at the last meeting.



OMG, I love this site..... lol
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Subject: MM#003 Major Flare Watch" -
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2012 10:58:37 +0000



Dear RHESSI Collaborators,

NOAA 11429 has remained relatively quiescent since the last message. The region is still showing signs of decay but retains its beta-gamma-delta configuration. There is also a long filament channel extending along the neutral line. Major Flare Watch conditions shall remain in effect due to the possibility of another mid-to-high M-class flare.

The position of NOAA 11429 on 12-Mar-2012 at 08:00 UT is:

N18W43, ( 627", 381" )

See http://www.SolarMonitor.org for images and http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/op s/observing.shtml for a description of the current Max Millennium Observing Plan.

Regards,

Ryan Milligan (QUB) Received on Mon Mar 12 2012 - 04:58:42 MDT


Member Since: กรกฎาคม 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
438. j2008
Quoting Patrap:
..yawn

nite.

Search is wunderful ting'

stanford on Mars weather


MRO MARCI WEATHER REPORT FOR THE WEEK OF
27 FEBRUARY 2012 4 MARCH 2012
Captioned Image Release No. MSSS-214 7 March 2012
http://www.msss.com/msss_images/2012/03/07/
YES!!! This is exactly the kind of stuff I was looking for. Thank you
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Hope you didn't get your best sheet dirty at the last meeting.
LOL I see you find humor in my sarcasm. Thanks, I try. I can poke fun at him cause I'm a lead singer in a band so haha. Later everyone, be back sometime tomorrow
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Hope you didn't get your best sheet dirty at the last meeting.


BZ :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

LOL.



I seriously could not stop laughing when I read the article, especially when the author said "channeled his inner Mike Tyson"

hahahaha its a freaking 6th grade basketball game and the coach bites a piece of the other coaches ear off. Its so barbaric and hilarious hahaha.

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Quoting j2008:
As an indepentant, I can truthfully say, both Bush and Obama sucked!! Dont get me wrong they both have small good things thrown into the bad. So yea, I hope Mr. SoulsingerObama pursues his singing career as a blues singer or something where he can better serve people than he can in politics. I dont like him, but then again out House and Senate just suck, people wonder why nothing gets done. Here it is plain and simple, both partys just sit and bicker all the time, they can never agree and never get over the fact that just cause someones of a different party doesnt mean that they are wrong. I guess I ask to much of our "representatives", I cant seriously think that our government will get anything accomplished. Oh and I love that Martian Dust Devil photo, proud to say it was by my bros over at the University of Arizona! Wish we had alot more information on Martian weather conditions, would be really interesting.


Hope you didn't get your best sheet dirty at the last meeting.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Obama's birth certificate is dubious, yes. But I think there is insufficient evidence to claim it as forgery. Though personally, if I had to take sides, it would be the one which paints him as a US citizen. Personally, I think one of the main reasons no one likes Barack is because he doesn't give religion special treatment. To my knowledge, he was the only United States president to openly acknowledge the existence of nonbelievers and members of other religions (whereas Bush's father openly declared the former group as not being citizens). Therefore, they find any excuse they can to make him look bad. Poisoning the well, as they call it.

Anyway, I never said Obama is a good president. He's not the greatest. But I think he far exceeds Bush. What a slouch he was.

Though he has no chance, I'd prefer Ron Paul to win.


His birth certificate is "dubious"?

The Governor of Hawaii has stated that President was born in Hawaii, without question.

His birth announcement was in the Honolulu paper.

I'm simply amazed that people who attempt to learn by spending time on this site would fall for that sort of low-digit IQ junk. Isn't there another site for the intentionally ignorant?

Member Since: กุมภาพันธ์ 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Coronal Holes
Member Since: กรกฎาคม 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
431. j2008
As an indepentant, I can truthfully say, both Bush and Obama sucked!! Dont get me wrong they both have small good things thrown into the bad. So yea, I hope Mr. SoulsingerObama pursues his singing career as a blues singer or something where he can better serve people than he can in politics. I dont like him, but then again out House and Senate just suck, people wonder why nothing gets done. Here it is plain and simple, both partys just sit and bicker all the time, they can never agree and never get over the fact that just cause someones of a different party doesnt mean that they are wrong. I guess I ask to much of our "representatives", I cant seriously think that our government will get anything accomplished. Oh and I love that Martian Dust Devil photo, proud to say it was by my bros over at the University of Arizona! Wish we had alot more information on Martian weather conditions, would be really interesting.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Some very good reading about CO2 gas


Why do most of the links point back to the same website as the article for its own references? How convenient is that? Using your own website for nearly all of your references. ... Something smells rotten, In Denmark?
Member Since: สิงหาคม 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nea, you would know. Did gas prices break $4.00 during President Bush's administration?


Found this...

$4.34 for Premium during July 2008 ($4.11 for Regular) based on the U.S. National Average.

$4.11 is about $4.18 in today's dollars.

Member Since: กุมภาพันธ์ 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
maybe thermal gravity wave creating a cool spot giving the image i've watch the sun a while you see all kinds of oddities in the solar region of the sun i have even seen faces but lets not get into that
Member Since: กรกฎาคม 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1137 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO

* UNTIL 1230 AM EDT

* AT 1130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HOLLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOLEDO...
OREGON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE NOW AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY!
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426. Skyepony (Mod)
Farmers in Italy had crops killed by a massive hailstorm. There was up to 30cm accumulation.

Landside in Peru caught 3.

Afghanistan's year of avalanches continues. The latest caught 45 people in the snow.

& Mustard gas leaking in KY.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Oh hang around. At least it's interesting.

There's a blessing that goes: May you live in interesting times." I've been blessed.


Yes well, history goes in cycles. :P Best put as "humans forget about their own self destruction after some time". Once all the thoughts of MAD goes away (remnants of the cold war), we are bound to start another large war with ourselves. Cycle has happened throughout history (1700s colonial wars, 1800s Napoleonic wars, 1900s WW1,2 and cold war, 2000s ???).

So you are almost guaranteed to live in an interesting time if you are alive for long enough.
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Member Since: กรกฎาคม 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting Jedkins01:
Link


I know this is a weather blog, but you have to read this link if you want a good laugh hahahaha.

LOL.
Member Since: กรกฎาคม 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
www.solarham.com
Member Since: กรกฎาคม 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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